
Well here we are. The playoffs begin tonight. I know most of my regular readers could care less, but you're reading my blog, so you're stuck with it.
As already noted, every year several friends and I put our playoff predictions round by round up on our blogs and then see who's the seer of seers. I've given pretty in depth analysis every year.....but my picks have been garbage. Let's see how I do this year.
Can I just say that I love the fact that the last day of regular season hockey decided several of the playoff seedings....in fact in the West the final 7 and 8 slot was decided by the final game of the regular season (10:30pm EST start time) and that game went to OT!
Before I get to my picks...if you haven't been through this process with me before I will remind you of a couple biases I have off the top that are probably part of the reason that I pick horribly.
1. I watch a lot of East Coast hockey all year long. I live on the East Coast. By the time some of the Western games are starting...I'm going to bed. My favorite teams are on the East Coast. I would like to believe that this year I've tried harder at watching some West Coast hockey and knowing a little more about the teams out there so that my picks are slightly more educated. We'll see.
2. I'm a goalie. I watch goalies more than forwards. I think about playing goalie. I think that goalies are the most important. So often when two teams are close in other categories, I just pick the better goalie. I've missed badly because of this. This year.....I'll still probably pick with a huge goalie bias.
OK let's get to my first round picks.
EASTERN CONFERENCENew York Rangers vs. Ottawa Senators:Let's say for the record that any of these series could be an upset and could go either way....to me this one is probably pretty cut and dry. New York has been the best team in the East all year long. They have the best goalie in the league this year in Lundqvist. They play gritty hockey and have guys that can finish at the net. Ottawa still has star power and has some skilled guys...but I just don't think they have enough to match up with New York.
Aaron's Pick: New York in 5Boston Bruins vs. Washington Capitals: Hockey analysts will tell you that this is a series to watch. For star power and name recognition it might be. You're talking about the defending Stanley Cup champions playing a team that has been hot and cold all season and just happened to get on a good streak at the end to edge my Sabres out for the last spot. They won their last game of the season to sneak up into a 7 spot...and they're gonna pay for it. Boston still might be the team to beat in the East...they haven't been streaky in the regular season, but they're a playoff team. They'll go in the corners. They'll make you pay. Let's also point out that Washington's top two goalies are out so the goalies they're stuck with are an AHL goalie and they called up Dany Sabourin who's been all over the place but hasn't cracked an NHL line-up since 08. They're hoping Braden Holtby is the answer...he's young and only played 14 games in the NHL. He's done well...but this is the playoffs. At the other end you have reigning Vezina winner, and Conn Smythe winner and Stanley Cup winner Tim Thomas.
Aaron's Pick: Bruins in 5 or 6Florida Panthers vs. New Jersey Devils: This is an interesting match-up...and one that no one will watch. Both teams struggle to get fans to show up for their games. Both teams have flown incredibly under the radar...even Florida who has had an incredible year. New Jersey comes in winning 6 straight games. Marty Brodeur looks like he's young again. This series could seriously go either way. I have to pick a winner and I just don't know...so I'll say...
Aaron's Pick: Florida in 6Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Philadelphia Flyers: In the interest of full disclosure, I have liked the Pens for years. I have also disliked the Flyers for my entire life. Something about that team drives me crazy. Good players get traded to Philly and instantly become dirty. I really love watching the Flyers lose. That all being said...please follow my reasoning for this series pick. This is going to be really fun to watch (and it begins tonight!). Hard nosed hockey. This series to me is the Penguins to lose. Shocked right? Here's why though.....Evgeni Malkin. There's a reason he's going to be the Art Ross trophy winner this year. He is a BEAST! Everyone wants to talk about Crosby coming back. I think I might've picked the Pens in this series without Crosby playing. Malkin has been walking around good defenseman all year like they're pillars. He's playing at this crazy level that we saw when they won the cup. Add in Crosby and Neal and Kunitz and Staal...that's a lot of firepower. Between the pipes...there is an argument that Fleury could get some Vezina votes just for keeping the Pens in it when guys were hurt and slumping. Bryzgalov has been all over the place. Let's also not forget that every time the Coyotes made the playoffs, he was horrible. I really wonder if he's a pressure goalie. Again...this series could go either way...
Aaron's pick: Penguins in 7
WESTERN CONFERENCEVancouver Canucks vs. Los Angeles Kings:Once again the Canucks were the Presidents Trophy winners (best regular season record). That hasn't meant much at all for years once playoff time comes. Vancouver is a crazy good team...but they're probably going to be playing without Daniel Sedin who's out with a concussion. I still think they have enough skill guys to get past LA. LA has been fighting hard just to make the playoffs for the past month. I think the Nucks are normally chokers, but should get past LA in the first round.
Aaron's pick Vancouver in 5St. Louis Blues vs. San Jose Sharks: This should be a fun matchup. San Jose is pretty gifted. They've actually been one of the big disappointments most of the year. Many people predicted them to easily win the West and probably take the Cup....they barely made the playoffs. St. Louis on the other hand has been the surprise of the West. They have to amazing goalies who are shutout kings. Under Ken Hitchcock they are a very hard nosed team. They have no problem mucking it up. They're my Boston Bruins of the West. Normally I'd pick the Sharks, but I think this is a Blues series to lose.
Aaron's pick: St. Louis in 6Phoenix Coyotes vs. Chicago Blackhawks: To me this might be the most unknown of all the series. Two great teams. Mike Smith, the Yotes goalie has willed them into the playoffs. He had 3 straight shutouts recently. Stood on his head. CRAZY. I would love to see Phoenix do well...if not win the Cup. They've had a bad go of it over the past couple years. I would like to see Phoenix win. I think Chicago is going to be hard to beat. The big question mark in this series is if Jonathan Toews will play...coming back from a concussion. This is a toss up. For the record I want Phoenix to win...BUT
Aaron's pick: Chicago in 7Nashville Predators vs. Detroit Redwings: It's really hard to pick against Detroit....because they're Detroit. Nashville is finally built for the playoffs. And they are built for right now. They made some crazy trade deadline deals. Then as the season was coming to a close, they got a legit scorer in Alexander Rudlov from the Russian KHL league. They are a serious threat this year. Basically if they win the Cup, they won't be able to afford their players, if they don't win the Cup, their players will leave. This might just be their year to be the Wings.
Aaron's Picks: Predators in 6Final thoughts: This is the part of the year where Aaron gets less and less sleep because I'm staying up late to watch the West Coast games.
Some of the other guys might not get their blogs up in time for tonights games, but know that they have registered their picks with us via message on Facebook. You can check in on their blogs here:
MattJeffRandy